Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-22 20.186831 21.984847 23.975949 26.365913 29.186347 32.447669 36.563298
2024-12-29 17.470011 19.812537 22.600234 26.238084 30.983425 37.160112 46.186036
2025-01-05 15.625943 18.253777 21.554831 26.159113 32.700956 42.205808 58.382780
2025-01-12 14.118930 16.850143 20.420856 25.663951 33.652389 46.440424 71.734072
2025-01-19 13.451447 16.411355 20.446693 26.714366 37.065374 55.765912 101.576295
2025-01-26 12.538729 15.520216 19.699954 26.448277 38.263576 61.729964 131.529980
2025-02-02 11.867399 14.884104 19.223699 26.492936 39.979019 69.598679 181.726571
2025-02-09 11.343581 14.400302 18.904089 26.718130 42.073927 79.633925 274.532672
2025-02-16 10.853711 13.918237 18.525695 26.765959 43.818572 90.111190 446.624408
2025-02-23 10.363563 13.394652 18.024800 26.509687 44.837751 99.425218 781.134259
2025-03-02 9.987741 13.014065 17.713901 26.551332 46.556747 112.988890 2242.550460
2025-03-09 9.600871 12.589218 17.290541 26.314302 47.543542 125.157652 38057.342343
2025-03-16 9.242652 12.193986 16.896142 26.107200 48.644175 140.188585 NaN
2025-03-23 8.916703 11.830763 16.528421 25.909167 49.751170 157.886341 NaN
2025-03-30 8.632025 11.516619 16.220817 25.796276 51.100239 180.863592 NaN
2025-04-06 8.311752 11.128678 15.756787 25.295480 51.164727 196.063623 NaN
2025-04-13 8.236374 11.130380 15.979059 26.311225 56.420450 279.274751 NaN
2025-04-20 7.989024 10.837514 15.648929 26.047426 57.321487 324.323355 NaN
2025-04-27 7.799446 10.630591 15.461360 26.088754 59.380299 409.822875 NaN
2025-05-04 7.644761 10.473778 15.354831 26.307070 62.258140 566.904626 NaN
2025-05-11 7.478959 10.290297 15.185603 26.353115 64.522012 794.355731 NaN
2025-05-18 7.288974 10.057805 14.909270 26.103175 65.464810 1049.784510 NaN
2025-05-25 7.143084 9.894279 14.755137 26.143615 67.790581 1759.081096 NaN